4Q U.S. PC Shipments: Industry Analysts, Solution Providers Anticipate Stabilization

Although doubts have been circulating about the future of the PC market, industry analysts still remain optimistic about future U.S. sales of desktops, notebooks and workstations.

A report, released Monday by market research firm IDC, perpetuated that belief, highlighting a 4.7 percent increase in the fourth-quarter U.S. PC market from last year's shipment levels.

The report, which excluded tablets, highlighted widespread growth in PC shipments of key vendors in the U.S. market. This ranking was spearheaded by Hewlett-Packard, with 30.1 percent share in the market, followed by Dell with a 23.8 percent share, Apple with a 12.7 percent share, Lenovo with a 10.2 percent share and Toshiba with a 6.5 percent share.

[Related: IDC: Commercial PC Shipments Healthy In 2014, But Growth Set To Flatten]

Worldwide levels of PC shipments were not as strong as those in the U.S. market, and faced a 2.4 percent overall drop in the fourth quarter, according to IDC. Part of the reason for this difference, according to IDC analyst Jay Chou, stemmed from the fact that the U.S. market saw a slowing market for tablets.

Looking forward, he said, the PC market will hopefully stabilize, but it may be too optimistic to hope that PC market levels will return to their previous growth rates.

"Consumers are paying more attention to PCs after the level of tablet growth has slowed down. In the short term, this is encouraging, but it's hard to say whether it can drastically change the direction of the market," said Chou. "In the long term, we've seen a slowing of the market decline, and hopefully that trajectory is heading toward the stabilization of the market. But with that said, it's tough for the PC market to return to the growth it saw five years ago."

Solution providers weren't surprised by the levels of growth in the U.S. PC market.

David Felton, of Norwalk, Conn.-based solution provider Canaan Technology, a partner of Lenovo and HP, thought the PC market's fourth-quarter success stemmed not from demand, but from companies having the money to spare on PCs and desktop computers.

"In general, people were sitting on their hands and not spending money. They didn't have a compelling reason to buy PCs," he said. "The economy is improving, so companies have the money now. People also were worried that tablets were taking over the PC market, but it comes down to the fact that you always need a PC. Even in virtual environments, you need a desktop."

HP, the top vendor in the U.S. market, faced a 26.2 percent growth in its PC market for the fourth quarter, after totaling 5.3 million shipments, up from last year's 4.2 million, according to IDC. The figures come after the company announced in October its plan to split into a PC-printer company, selling computers, and an enterprise computing company, focused on software and storage services.

Dell followed closely behind with 4.2 million total shipments, up 13.7 percent from last year's fourth-quarter sales.

Looking ahead, Felton predicted that the PC market will continue to evolve.

"I don't envision the PC business going away, but I see the form factor of PCs evolving," he said. "My take is that our partners, HP and Lenovo, came out with really good products this year, not architecturally-wise, but form-factor-wise. We're seeing tinier machines with form factors that now support dual monitors and SS drives. These are offerings that are more appealing than in the past."

Kyle Cebull, CMO of Fort Myers, Fla.-based solution provider Entech, agreed that the rejuvenated economy has helped vendors snag new sales from existing PC owners.

"From a big-picture perspective, I'm not surprised," he said. "A lot of companies have waited to do things for their hardware, especially with the tough economy, and have been using equipment up to five years old."

NEXT: Partners Applaud Apple PC Growth Levels

Apple PC shipment sales ranked third place in IDC's report, after Hewlett-Packard and Dell, with 2.2 million units sold, up 18.1 percent from last year's total fourth-quarter shipments of 1.9 million.

Michael Oh, of Boston-based Apple partner Tech SuperPowers, stressed that Apple has always been known for its PC offerings.

"People underestimate the significance of Macs when they look at Apple's future," he stated. "I think that people view Apple as an innovative devices company, which you can see with all the hype about Apple Watch. But as an Apple partner, we've always seen a strong demand for laptops, in particular. I think that momentum is continued for laptops."

Other industry specialists, like Raul De Arriz, national government sales manager for Apple technology consulting firm Small Dog Electronics, Waitsfield, Vt., stressed that Apple has done well due to consumer interest in its laptop lineup.

"We've seen strong growth in Apple ... in terms of sales," said De Arriz. "Apple's lineup led to good sales early in the fall, with the MacBook Pro and MacBook Air. I think the Apple's laptop continues to sell very well in spite of increased marketing from Microsoft and others trying to grab attention away from it."

De Arriz predicted that Apple and other PC conglomerates would see extended growth, especially with the idea of the Internet of Things becoming more popular.

"The Apple ecosystem is really going to bloom, more so than before, with the Apple Watch and other upgrades in software enabling the MacBook and other devices to communicate better with one another," said De Arriz. "Basically, with IoT, everything gets connectivity, and I suspect PCs will see a huge bump from that."

PUBLISHED JAN. 13, 2015